A developing theory surrounding the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie is drawing attention to a narrow time window in the early morning hours of February 1, 2026 — and what that window could mean for search efforts.

According to the theory, if Nancy was removed from her Tucson-area home between approximately 2:30 and 3:00 a.m. local time, the individual responsible would have had a limited period before twilight to transport, conceal or dispose of her within a manageable driving radius. Sunrise on that date occurred shortly after 5:40 a.m., meaning roughly a two-hour window of darkness remained.

Criminal investigators often analyze timeline compression in cases involving nighttime movement. Travel distance, terrain familiarity and lighting conditions can significantly influence disposal or concealment choices. In desert environments surrounding Tucson, numerous remote areas exist within a two-hour drive — including desert washes, undeveloped land, abandoned structures and rural routes.

The theory proposes that if Nancy was transported during that early morning window, the location chosen would likely fall within a two-hour driving radius. This assumption is grounded in practical considerations: extended travel increases exposure risk, fuel consumption, surveillance encounters and daylight visibility.

While law enforcement has not confirmed this specific theory publicly, such geographic profiling is common in missing-person investigations. Analysts often use drive-time mapping software to create circular or irregular search zones based on departure time and known roadway networks.

An additional element of the theory involves forensic persistence. If Nancy was placed or hidden at a location shortly after removal, biological material — including blood, hair, fibers or other trace evidence — may remain, depending on environmental exposure.

DNA persistence in outdoor environments varies widely. Factors such as temperature fluctuations, UV exposure, moisture and wildlife activity can degrade biological samples. However, under certain conditions — particularly in dry desert climates — trace DNA can persist for extended periods.

If investigators were to identify a site containing both Nancy’s DNA and that of an unknown second contributor, such a discovery could provide evidentiary value. DNA mixture analysis allows forensic scientists to isolate and compare genetic profiles when multiple contributors are present.

Importantly, the theory does not assert confirmed knowledge of Nancy’s movements. Instead, it frames a plausible geographic boundary based on estimated timing and sunrise constraints.

Search strategies in such cases often combine geographic profiling with tip analysis, cell tower data review and vehicle movement reconstruction. If surveillance footage, license plate reader data or digital pings align with the proposed two-hour radius, the theory’s relevance could increase.

Community involvement remains critical. Law enforcement agencies frequently rely on public awareness to identify overlooked rural properties, unusual disturbances or suspicious activity observed during early morning hours.

Authorities have cautioned against speculation becoming substitute for verified evidence. However, analytical frameworks like time-distance modeling remain central tools in investigative planning.

The Tucson region’s surrounding terrain presents both challenges and possibilities. Sparse development in certain directions allows for concealment opportunities, while highway networks enable relatively rapid movement outward from urban centers.

If Nancy was indeed removed between 2:30 and 3:00 a.m., the darkness preceding dawn would have provided concealment but also imposed urgency. By 5:40 a.m., increasing light would reduce privacy and increase detection risk.

Whether the two-hour radius theory proves accurate remains to be seen. Investigators continue to evaluate physical evidence, digital records and witness statements.

For now, the timeline between 2:30 a.m. and sunrise stands as a potentially critical segment in the case — one that could define the geographic boundaries of future search efforts.

Authorities continue to urge anyone with information regarding Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance to contact law enforcement.